Scientific Whitepaper & Data Synthesis Architecture

CultureCast Econometric Methodology

Version 1.4 • Published by Systemores Cultural Intelligence Research • Updated 2026

01. Executive Purpose & Public Transparency

Cultural institutions—including art museums, science complexes, botanical gardens, and zoos—represent dual missions: public civic education and sustainable operational stewardship. CultureCast synthesizes publicly reported institutional balance sheets (IRS Form 990 filings) with empirical visitor signals (ticket pricing, dwell-time depth, crowd congestion) to establish an open, authoritative standard for cultural analytics.

02. Mathematical Models & Algorithms

A. Normalized Bang-for-Your-Buck Value Score (V-Score)

Quantifies the return on capital and time invested per adult visit on a scale of 0 to 100:

V_score = \min\left(100, \, 100 \times \left[ 0.40 \cdot \frac{\ln(T_{dwell} + 1)}{\ln(P_{eff} + 10)} + 0.35 \cdot \overline{S}_{review} + 0.15 \cdot \min(1, \frac{E}{10^8}) + 0.10 \cdot (1 - \mu_{fric}) \right]\right)

T_dwell: Median visitor dwell time in hours (sourced from mobility signals).
P_eff: Effective adult admission ticket fee (USD).
S_review: Normalized review sentiment index across core curatorial collections.
E: IRS Form 990 audited net endowment assets.
μ_fric: Auxiliary friction index reflecting parking costs and food markups.

B. 30-Day Forward Predictive Crowd Forecasting

Models daily attendance density through deterministic historical time-series and search intent velocity:

\hat{A}_{forecast}(t) = \overline{A}_{base} \times \delta_{dow}(t) \times \gamma_{season}(t) \times (1 + \sigma_{intent}(t)) \times \omega_{weather}(t)

C. Latent Donor Propensity & Institutional Sustainability

Evaluates the civic resilience and donor support underwriting general access:

C_{donor} = 0.35 \cdot \left(\frac{R_{pub}}{R_{tot}}\right) + 0.35 \cdot \min\left(1, \frac{\text{Income}_{orig}}{150000}\right) + 0.30 \cdot (1 - \text{Churn}_{rep})

03. Data Governance & Ethics

CultureCast adheres strictly to Privacy by Design principles. All mobility and dwell estimates represent aggregated, anonymized public block group patterns. Financial disclosures are directly matched against publicly accessible IRS Form 990 e-File filings.